Public sentiment surrounding the escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan is characterized by deep concern, skepticism regarding U.S. involvement, and a desire for peaceful resolution. While many express strong support for Taiwan's independence and sovereignty, significant anxiety exists about the potential for conflict and the effectiveness of military strategies. Commenters display a mix of cautious optimism and underlying fears about the geopolitical landscape and its implications for Taiwan's autonomy.

Taiwan

China

United States

Ah. So china will be the ones to kick off ww3?

ThrowAwayGarbage82

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&gt; # [Taiwan president calls for peace and dialogue with China amid heightened military activity](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/901b831599d0a652b23d86459baf10a8cf59fba0/0_334_3751_3003/master/3751.jpg?width=1200&amp;height=630&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;overlay-align=bottom%2Cleft&amp;overlay-width=100p&amp;overlay-base64=L2ltZy9zdGF0aWMvb3ZlcmxheXMvdGctZGVmYXVsdC5wbmc&amp;enable=upscale&amp;s=a509cb6339ed1360a91ed147d6f1afde)
&gt; 
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt; Taiwan’s president has reiterated calls for peace and dialogue with China as he marked one year in office, amid heightened Chinese military activity and worsening political division at home.
&gt; 
&gt; [Lai Ching-te](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/new-taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-profile-bio-details), who was [inaugurated a year ago](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/20/lai-ching-te-taiwan-new-president), told reporters on Tuesday that a war would have “no winners”, but Taiwan would continue to strengthen its defences to ward off [a Chinese invasion or attempt to annex it by force](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/28/china-defence-ministry-taiwan-threat).
&gt; 
&gt; “It is the aggressor who undermines peace … Taiwan is a peace-loving nation, and our society values goodwill,” he said on Tuesday in response to questions after his formal address. “I am deeply committed to peace, because peace is priceless, and in war there are no winners.”
&gt; 
&gt; “However, whilst our pursuit of peace is sincere, it must not be naive.”
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; He urged Beijing to restart dialogue with his government on equal terms, “using exchanges to replace hemming in, dialogue to replace confrontation”.
&gt; 
&gt; China’s ruling Communist party (CCP) cut all ties and dialogue with Taiwan’s government when Lai’s predecessor, [Tsai Ing-wen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/tsai-ing-wen-former-professor-on-course-to-be-most-powerful-woman-in-chinese-speaking-world), won the 2016 election for their pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive party. The CCP considers the party to be unlawful separatists.
&gt; 
&gt; In response to the president’s speech, China’s official state media, Xinhua, accused Lai of “deliberately escalating” cross-Strait tensions.
&gt; 
&gt; “Since taking office, the Lai Ching-te administration has brazenly pursued ‘Taiwan independence’ to serve partisan and personal gain, charging headlong down a path of division and confrontation that threatens the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait,” it said.
&gt; 
&gt; In recent weeks China’s military launched larger than usual numbers of planes and ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone – an average of about 20 planes and 11 navy and coastguard ships each day.
&gt; 
&gt; Taiwan authorities had publicly warned of likely Chinese retaliation or pre-emptive activity in response to the speech. Last week government officials told reporters they couldn’t rule out military drills in the days after Lai spoke, and on Monday the coast guard said Beijing could launch “political warfare” to disrupt public morale in Taiwan.
&gt; 
&gt; Lai has taken a more [publicly assertive stance against China’s aggression](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/12/dont-panic-but-dont-relax-taiwans-plan-to-use-7-eleven-chains-as-wartime-hubs) than his predecessor Tsai, which analysts had been expecting his inauguration anniversary speech to continue. Earlier this month he said [Taiwan was facing a similar threat to Europe in the 1930s](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/08/taiwan-president-europe-second-world-war)**.**
&gt; 
&gt; However the speech on Tuesday in the end made no mention of China or its annexation plans, and his related comments only came in response to questions in the subsequent press conference. Instead the speech focused on domestic pledges to reduce carbon emissions, plans to deal with the US Trump administration’s punitive tariffs, and domestic political turmoil.
&gt; 
&gt; “The trade de-escalation reached between Beijing and Washington has generated anxiety in Taipei over whether the issue of Taiwan may emerge in future US-China talks,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director in Eurasia Group’s China practice, referring to fears Beijing may seek a softening of [the US’s longstanding support of Taiwan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/02/pete-hegseth-indicates-us-backing-taiwan). “This uncertainty may be a factor for why Lai chose not to reiterate his views on the China threat in a high profile speech.”
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Amid worsening domestic political turmoil Lai announced he would offer national security briefings to the chair of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT and another rival party, the TPP, control the majority of seats in Taiwan’s legislature and have been accused of blocking Lai’s agenda.
&gt; 
&gt; The opposition parties have accused Lai and his Democratic Progressive party of increasing tensions with China and stifling opposition. [In the name of national security](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/27/taiwan-jails-four-soldiers-including-three-who-worked-in-presidential-office-for-spying-for-china), Lai’s administration has increased [scrutiny of Chinese-born people in Taiwan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/27/taiwan-chinese-passport-id-card-crackdown), and cracked down on public statements that support Beijing’s goals.
&gt; 
&gt; The KMT welcomed the new briefings as Lai having “finally taken a small step” to end partisan conflict, but said he had much more to do.

  
  
  
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empleadoEstatalBot

Honestly he’s been extremely aggressive so this is welcomed news. The majority of Taiwan don’t want a military escalation with China so it’s good to see they’re not being ignored.

AlbertoRossonero

Not too surprised when United States is currently in a political limbo with where it wants to stand as a global power piece. That said, if Taiwan can bargain some semblance of a short term non-aggression pact with China, they might avoid war ever becoming a topic forever because China is struggling with their own version of a population age disparity crisis as well, and the economic instability across multiple rural regions have now become a severe issue to the point of civil unrest. China won't have time to assume war on neighbouring countries if it's people rise up in protest, and who knows where USA will stand in the next presidency.

lan60000

I think the real curveball is Trump.

If the DPP oversees a massive decrease in economic activity, even if it’s not even their fault, you might get the KMT again, who are more pro-Chinese. Trump could do a number of things that threaten the Taiwanese economy. If Lai is seen both fanning Chinese aggression (again, even if it’s not his fault) and not protecting the Taiwanese economy enough, the DPP may be voted out the next election and you may see a switch up in the trend of cross-strait relationships.

vhu9644

Taiwan’s defense strategy once relied on holding off a Chinese invasion just long enough for the U.S. to intervene. But trust in that support is fading, especially with Trump. Taiwan can no longer expect a repeat scenario of the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. In response, Taiwan is now shifting its focus to long-term conflict readiness, preparing for blockades. Lai is unapologetically promoting civilian resilience through stockpiles and public drills. Taiwan will need to resist occupation on its own and learn from Ukraine’s current struggles.

WinterizedLibyan

Why does the Pacific fleet exist doing exercises with Taiwan?

I can say that it would be reasonable for Taiwan to not expect American troops on the ground on the island but support with weaponry (drones, artillery, missiles)

A hypothetical war would mean that the US would use its Navy and Air Force, I thought that was consensus.

WalterWoodiaz

India should provide Taiwan with supersonic cruise missiles (Brahmos) and air defense tech, given the extreme level of military support China gives to Pakistan

https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf

Physical_Bill9756

This war will definitely happen and probably in the next few years when Xi is not too old and can still take the credit of "unification".

If Taiwan does not want to be the next Hong Kong, they need to put in more effort to prepare and mentally harden themselves. I watched quite a few street interviews of Taiwanese and they mostly just expect the US to save them. Not likely when Trump is the president to be honest, especially if China proposes some juicy deals in advance.

The Taiwanese government needs to train the people on guerilla warfare and stockpiling ammunition, drones and RPGs.

DaySecure7642

They're being realistic and know they cannot rely on the US. No country can.

voyagerdoge

FelizIntrovertido

After taking away Taiwan's nuclear weapons program, the US might now consider back out of TW. 

Has Xi Jinping said "thank you" to America?

ApostleofV8

Taiwan has seen how the battlefield has changed to significantly favor the defenders with the new drone warfare paradigm in Ukraine.

They probably reasoned that it's now viable for them to defend against China on their own, or even that China wouldn't even risk an invasion even if they explicitly declare independence.

genshiryoku

How is this the unthinkable? This should be the standard moving forward. I am proud of the United States geopolitical capabilities, but I am strongly against countries having to rely on us from a sovereignty point of view.

bunchalingo

It will have to create new partners and be ready for no US support

archjh

The US fought bitterly leading up to UN 2758 to amend the resolution to recognise Taiwan as a seperate member. What followed was a intricate web of dependency, deceit and cooperation between US, China and Taiwan for the next half a century. Strategic ambiguity may have had its use, it is ultimately a duplicitous position that alleys the fears of no one, while implicitly taking on a moral obligation. 

Magicalsandwichpress

With their manufacturing capabilities, they can churn out significantly more low cost drones than Ukraine ever can and give China a bloody nose. Even Ukraine is doing a fantastic job of making low cost and simple to use drones in the middle of a war under constant bombardment. If Taiwan preps for it during peace time, they can have significant deterrence built up should the need arises.

Assuming of course they don't get Nuked by China. God help us all if it ever comes to that.

Mysterious-Coconut24

ChewyNapkin

If Taiwan wins it will almost certainly abandon the one-China policy and officially declare independence. The world should follow suit by recognizing it. The one China thing is a polite fiction that's gotten way out of hand.

Kahing

didn't they do this a few years ago as well during the early days of the Biden administration? I could be wrong but I vaguely remember similar news a few years back....

MetroidvaniaListsGuy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning

unknown-one

China and Taiwan have literally put their civil war on pause for 70+ years but don’t worry Taiwan will be invaded any day now.

Dragonwick

Its a grey zone warfare. Give China a taste of their own medicine

ihaveadognameddevil

[deleted]

It’s also provocative to China somehow that Philippine fishermen fish in Philippine waters. Is there anything that doesn’t provoke China at all?

princemousey1

China will likely be exposed same as Russia. A giant in a tutu dress.

LogOverall1905

These days all you have to do is watch the US hurt itself

DirtyWetNoises

Bout time, Taiwan 🇹🇼 is an independent sovereign nation. The un and nato won't acknowledge this fact. im glad we are.

Icy-Mix-3977

Taiwan is country # 1! Weenie the poo is a turd

Open_Potato_5686

 They’ll say this is “extremely provocative” and against previous agreements between U.S. and China, but China surrounding Taiwan with a naval blockade, conquering islands that don’t belong to them, and claiming the entire South China Sea was rather provocative as well. And China taking political control over Hong Kong and denying all the protesters demands was also against previous agreements between China and U.K. 

Looks to me like China is the one instigating

Ok-Occasion2440

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AutoModerator

Don't worry, China has way more than that in taiwan.

SumoSummer

I'm sure China knows this given how many spies they have in Taiwan and pro-CCP government officials. Also it's a no shit thing. The US has 'irregular' forces embedded all over the world.

Savings-Seat6211

Well the U.S. has well over 500 Chinese illegals of military aged males, so I guess they could call it even.

TOKGABI

When China invades Taiwan, it  will be called “ Operation Million Men Swim”

Worth-Demand-8844

Dopamine11111

The US will do everything it can to provoke China into invading Taiwan.

StepAsideJunior

They are trainers, probably mostly green berrets. They are not there to fight an invasion, which is why China hasn’t made a big stink about them.

talldude8

I think before reading this just take into account the context that 58% of reddit users are based in the US and subject to biases due to their exposure to biased media. 

Somehow things seem clearer. 

I'm curious if a southern state had all the declared independence after the civil war where all the confederates moved to then proceeded to run their country with a different political system and continued the institution of slavery. 

How would the rest of America view this state?

The13thAlex

taike0886

Meanwhile China does nothing and that's testing Washington's red lines.

GetOutOfTheWhey

China is going to invade whatever the material costs seem not to be outweighed by material interests so in the next five years.

spinosaurs70

Xi have shown weakness for several times,  so- he needs Taiwan to be annexed in any time, or his mere friends would bring him down.

MainMore691

Those troops will leave Taiwan just like they left Ukraine when Russia was about to invade.

yus456

"red lines" again, huh? Look how well the red lines worked for ruSSia

NoCartographer8002

why not just put nets of ocean sea mines in the taiwan strait

then nothing passes there

Electrical_Quality_6

火上浇油 一箭双雕 It's a good move for US, as the situation heats up allowing the semiconductor industry to accelerate its shift to the US, maybe inducing a war to make arms money.

Akalin123

Ok so three things: one) Russia and Ukraine share a massive land border and China and Taiwan are separated by 100 miles of open ocean. That is so much harder to invade across. 

Two) since the 80’s Taiwan has deliberately become the center of the world for semiconductor production for exactly this reason. So if they get invaded everyone will come to their aid. It’s called the Silicon Shield defense strategy and its deterrence against China has worked for the past two decades decade at least. 

3) do not assume any invasion of Taiwan is going to be easy for China. For 70 years the main defense goals of Taiwan have been 100% focused on a Chinese invasion. To even land on Taiwan would take a beach front landing that would make D-Day look like a pillow fight. Sure they would win eventually but Taiwan is going to make them pay for every inch of land

Lantis28

I don't know if they'll invade they want to but there's so much shit that makes it difficult that it is not something to worry about for now

Powerful_Gas_7833

There is a body of water between them (unlike with Russia and Ukraine) as Taiwan is an island and Xi Jinping is smarter than Putin and won’t ruin China’s young and hard-earned soft power like that.

Hero-Firefighter-24

Taiwan is an island de facto country 




Long story short China is humiliated by territorial losses in the 20th and 19th centuries and they want to reclaim it before they make a superpower out of themselves, and no piece of land is higher on their itinerary then Taiwan 




Taiwan's importance is long story short the majority of the world's semiconductors and microchips are made there something like 60 to 90% depending on the figure. The world economy needs and I absolutely stress this needs Taiwanese semiconductors. The loss of those semiconductors would spell disaster for the world economy if I read it correctly it might be 10 trillion dollars a loss in the global economy a year should have war break out.




Taiwan is a powder keg more dangerous than Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine which is surrounded by allied countries that we can snuggle weapons through we can't with Taiwan we're separated by the vast Pacific Ocean we would have to get directly involved. It would be two of the largest economy fighting and two nuclear superpowers fighting. 




And once the cat's out of the bag with that other countries might fill their ambitions Russia might try and invade Eastern Europe with the US distracted, North Korea might make moves into South Korea, Venezuela might try and take over Guyana. 




It's not known if it'll happen but the late 2020s is set to be the prime time since that's going to be the centennial of the people's liberation army. There's the economic effect that could deter China but also the fact that trying to invade Time Warner would be damn near difficult they have to get hundreds of thousands to millions of soldiers across 100 mi of water which would require a massive ship buildup that anybody would see from a mile away.

So, everyone is pointing out how, logistically speaking, an invasion of Taiwan isn't really the slam dunk for China that it might seem. I would like to add that if China was *really* gearing up for a shot at Taiwan, there'd be more evidence of that happening. When Russia was gearing up for their invasion of Ukraine, they'd spent several weeks mobilizing on the border. It was pretty clear what they were planning on doing. China will occasionally do some drills with their fighter jets or whatever, but usually it's a show of force. If they were truly mobilizing for an assault on Taiwan, you'd more likely than not see evidence of that.

So yeah. I'm not saying for certain that China won't *eventually* try and invade Taiwan, because I can't tell the future. There would be more concrete evidence of the Chinese army mounting up for an attack, and we have yet to see that. So for right now, I wouldn't worry.

Kalse1229

It was just a civil war that started in 1930.



In 1949, the Kuomintang, which took power in China, was defeated in the civil war and retreated to the present-day Taiwan Island.



This led to the current Taiwan Strait issue.



Before 1970, the Kuomintang-controlled regime had always represented \[all of China\] in the United Nations, although by 1950 it had lost control of 95% of China's territory

coludFF_h

Taiwan has reported an increase in Chinese military activities surrounding the island, which has raised concerns about potential conflict due to parallel tensions from U.S. support for Taiwan.

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